News Can Help! The Impact of News Media and Digital Platforms on Awareness of and Belief in Misinformation

Does the news media exacerbate or reduce misinformation problems? Although some news media deliberately try to counter misinformation, it has been suggested that they might also inadvertently, and sometimes purposefully, amplify it. We conducted a two-wave panel survey in Brazil, India, and the UK (N = 4732) to investigate the effect of news and digital platform use on awareness of and belief in COVID-19 misinformation over time (January to February 2022). We find little support for the idea that the news exacerbates misinformation problems. News use broadened people's awareness of false claims but did not increase belief in false claims—in some cases, news use actually weakened false belief acquisition, depending on access mode (online or offline) and outlet type. In line with previous research, we also find that news use strengthens political knowledge gain over time, again depending on outlets used. The effect of digital platforms was inconsistent across countries, and in most cases not significant—though some, like Twitter, were associated with positive outcomes while others were associated with negative outcomes. Overall, our findings challenge the notion that news media, by reporting on false and misleading claims, ultimately leave the public more misinformed, and support the idea that news helps people become more informed and, in some cases, more resilient to misinformation. [ FROM AUTHOR]

Estimating the relative proportions of SARS-CoV-2 haplotypes from wastewater samples.

Wastewater surveillance has become essential for monitoring the spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The quantification of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in wastewater correlates with the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caseload in a community. However, estimating the proportions of different SARS-CoV-2 haplotypes has remained technically difficult. We present a phylogenetic imputation method for improving the SARS-CoV-2 reference database and a method for estimating the relative proportions of SARS-CoV-2 haplotypes from wastewater samples. The phylogenetic imputation method uses the global SARS-CoV-2 phylogeny and imputes based on the maximum of the posterior probability of each nucleotide. We show that the imputation method has error rates comparable to, or lower than, typical sequencing error rates, which substantially improves the reference database and allows for accurate inferences of haplotype composition. Our method for estimating relative proportions of haplotypes uses an initial step to remove unlikely haplotypes and an expectation maximization (EM) algorithm for obtaining maximum likelihood estimates of the proportions of different haplotypes in a sample. Using simulations with a reference database of >3 million SARS-CoV-2 genomes, we show that the estimated proportions reflect the true proportions given sufficiently high sequencing depth.

The Covid-19 impacts on the European Union aquaculture sector.

There have been a number of indications of strong negative impacts of Covid-19 and the preventive measures associated with the pandemic for all food sectors. However, there is increasing evidence that the picture is quite nuanced where the Covid related measures are creating challenges for some and opportunities for others. In this paper we investigate the impacts of Covid-19 on the aquaculture sector in the European Union using two approaches; a survey where industry representatives and experts assess the impacts on key economic indicators allowing for positive as well as negative impacts, and recently published aquaculture production data for Denmark and Spain. Our findings show that surveys' results indicate that, on average, the impact of Covid-19 is negative on the income side, increasing cost and therefore negative with respect to profit. However, in every category the average covers both positive and negative answers suggesting that what was a challenge for some was a window of an opportunity for others. The production data for Denmark and Spain also indicate moderate to no impacts of the Covid-19. The strongest impacts appear on the turbot prices, a species where highly dependent on higher end restaurants. The lower price is a clear indication that there was a significant opportunity cost associated with getting access to other supply chains, particularly as the quantity was also moderately down.

Estimating the relative proportions of SARS-CoV-2 haplotypes from wastewater samples

Wastewater surveillance has become essential for monitoring the spread of SARS-CoV-2. The quantification of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in wastewater correlates with the Covid-19 caseload in a community. However, estimating the proportions of different SARS-CoV-2 haplotypes has remained technically difficult. We present a phylogenetic imputation method for improving the SARS-CoV-2 reference database and a method for estimating the relative proportions of SARS-CoV-2 haplotypes from wastewater samples. The phylogenetic imputation method uses the global SARS-CoV-2 phylogeny and imputes based on the maximum of the posterior probability of each nucleotide. We show that the imputation method has error rates comparable to, or lower than, typical sequencing error rates which substantially improves the reference database and allows for accurate inferences of haplotype composition. Our method for estimating relative proportions of haplotypes uses an initial step to remove unlikely haplotypes and an Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm for obtaining maximum likelihood estimates of the proportions of different haplotypes in a sample. Using simulations with a reference database of >3 million SARS-CoV-2 genomes, we show that the estimated proportions reflect the true proportions given sufficiently high sequencing depth. Graphical Pipes et al. present a method for estimating the proportion of different SARS-CoV-2 haplotypes from shotgun sequencing of wastewater samples allowing researchers to obtain accurate results in real-time.

Running on empty: a longitudinal global study of psychological well-being among runners during the COVID-19 pandemic.

OBJECTIVES: There are indications that the COVID-19 pandemic has had a profound negative effect on psychological well-being. Here, we investigated this hypothesis using longitudinal data from a large global cohort of runners, providing unprecedented leverage for understanding how the temporal development in the pandemic pressure relates to well-being across countries. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: Global. PARTICIPANTS: We used data from the worldwide Garmin-RUNSAFE cohort that recruited runners with a Garmin Connect account, which is used for storing running activities tracked by a Garmin device. A total of 7808 Garmin Connect users from 86 countries participated. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: From 1 August 2019 (prepandemic) to 31 December 2020, participants completed surveys every second week that included the five-item WHO Well-Being Index (WHO-5). Pandemic pressure was proxied by the number of COVID-19-related deaths per country, retrieved from the Coronavirus Resource Centre at Johns Hopkins University. Panel data regression including individual- and time-fixed effects was used to study the association between country-level COVID-19-related deaths over the past 14 days and individual-level self-reported well-being over the past 14 days. RESULTS: The 7808 participants completed a total of 125 409 WHO-5 records over the study period. We found a statistically significant inverse relationship between the number of COVID-19-related deaths and the level of psychological well-being-independent of running activity and running injuries (a reduction of 1.42 WHO-5 points per COVID-19-related death per 10 000 individuals, p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: This study suggests that the COVID-19 pandemic has had a negative effect on the psychological well-being of the affected populations, which is concerning from a global mental health perspective.

Assessing Uncertainty in the Rooting of the SARS-CoV-2 Phylogeny.

The rooting of the SARS-CoV-2 phylogeny is important for understanding the origin and early spread of the virus. Previously published phylogenies have used different rootings that do not always provide consistent results. We investigate several different strategies for rooting the SARS-CoV-2 tree and provide measures of statistical uncertainty for all methods. We show that methods based on the molecular clock tend to place the root in the B clade, whereas methods based on outgroup rooting tend to place the root in the A clade. The results from the two approaches are statistically incompatible, possibly as a consequence of deviations from a molecular clock or excess back-mutations. We also show that none of the methods provide strong statistical support for the placement of the root in any particular edge of the tree. These results suggest that phylogenetic evidence alone is unlikely to identify the origin of the SARS-CoV-2 virus and we caution against strong inferences regarding the early spread of the virus based solely on such evidence.

Outcome of COVID-19 in hospitalized patients with chronic inflammatory diseases. A population based national register study in Denmark.

OBJECTIVE: COVID-19 has substantial morbidity and mortality. We studied whether hospitalized patients with COVID-19 and chronic inflammatory diseases experienced worse outcomes compared to patients hospitalized with COVID-19 without chronic inflammatory diseases. METHODS: Danish nationwide registers were used to establish a cohort of hospitalized patients with COVID-19 and inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD), rheumatoid arthritis (RA), spondyloarthropathy (SpA), or psoriatic arthritis (PsA) (exposed), and a control cohort without these diseases (unexposed) between March 1, 2020, and October 31, 2020. We compared median length of hospital stay, used median regression models to estimate crude and adjusted differences. When estimating crude and adjusted odds ratio (OR) for continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) and mechanical ventilation, in-hospital death, 14-day and 30-day mortality, we used logistic regression models. RESULTS: We identified 132 patients with COVID-19 and IBD, RA, SpA, or PsA, and 2811 unexposed admitted to hospital with COVID-19. There were no differences between exposed and unexposed regarding length of hospital stay (6.8 days vs. 5.5 days), need for mechanical ventilation (7.6% vs. 9.4%), or CPAP (11.4% vs. 8.8%). Adjusted OR for in-hospital death was 0.71 (95% CI 0.42-1.22), death after 14-days 0.70 (95% CI 0.42-1.16), and death after 30-days 0.68 (95% CI 0.41-1.13). CONCLUSION: Hospitalized patients with COVID-19 and chronic inflammatory diseases did not have statistically significant increased length of hospital stay, had same need for mechanical ventilation, and CPAP. Mortality was similar in hospitalized patients with COVID-19 and chronic inflammatory diseases, compared to patients hospitalized with COVID-19 and no chronic inflammatory diseases.

Synonymous mutations and the molecular evolution of SARS-CoV-2 origins.

Human severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is most closely related, by average genetic distance, to two coronaviruses isolated from bats, RaTG13 and RmYN02. However, there is a segment of high amino acid similarity between human SARS-CoV-2 and a pangolin-isolated strain, GD410721, in the receptor-binding domain (RBD) of the spike protein, a pattern that can be caused by either recombination or by convergent amino acid evolution driven by natural selection. We perform a detailed analysis of the synonymous divergence, which is less likely to be affected by selection than amino acid divergence, between human SARS-CoV-2 and related strains. We show that the synonymous divergence between the bat-derived viruses and SARS-CoV-2 is larger than between GD410721 and SARS-CoV-2 in the RBD, providing strong additional support for the recombination hypothesis. However, the synonymous divergence between pangolin strain and SARS-CoV-2 is also relatively high, which is not consistent with a recent recombination between them, instead, it suggests a recombination into RaTG13. We also find a 14-fold increase in the dN /dS ratio from the lineage leading to SARS-CoV-2 to the strains of the current pandemic, suggesting that the vast majority of nonsynonymous mutations currently segregating within the human strains have a negative impact on viral fitness. Finally, we estimate that the time to the most recent common ancestor of SARS-CoV-2 and RaTG13 or RmYN02 based on synonymous divergence is 51.71 years (95% CI, 28.11-75.31) and 37.02 years (95% CI, 18.19-55.85), respectively.

Hospitalization for COVID-19 in patients treated with selected immunosuppressant and immunomodulating agents, compared to the general population: A Danish cohort study.

AIMS: In the Danish population, we examined whether patients treated with thiopurines, methotrexate, systemic corticosteroids, anti-tumour necrosis factor (TNF)-α agents, anti-interleukin therapeutic agents, selective immunosuppressive agents and cyclosporine/tacrolimus had an increased risk of hospitalization for COVID- 19, compared to the background population. METHODS: A nationwide cohort study including all people alive in Denmark on 1 March 2020. Exposed patients constituted those exposed to thiopurines (n = 5484), methotrexate (n = 17 977), systemic corticosteroids (n = 55 868), anti-TNF-α agents (n = 17 857), anti-interleukin therapeutic agents (n = 3744), selective immunosuppressive agents (n = 3026) and cyclosporine/tacrolimus (n = 1143) in a period of 12 months prior to 1 March 2020 (estimated time of outbreak in Denmark). We estimated the adjusted risk of hospitalization for COVID-19 for patients treated with the above-mentioned categories of medications, compared to the rest of the population. RESULTS: The adjusted odds ratios of hospitalization in patients treated with corticosteroids and cyclosporine/tacrolimus were 1.64 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.35 to 2.00) and 4.75 (95% CI 1.96 to 11.49), respectively. The risks of hospitalization in patients treated with thiopurines, methotrexate, and anti-TNF-α agents, were 1.93 (95% CI 0.91 to 4.08), 0.74 (95% CI 0.43 to 1.28), 1.00 (95% CI 0.52 to 1.94), respectively. The number of outcomes in patients treated with anti-interleukin therapeutic agents and selective immunosuppressive agents was too small for analysis. CONCLUSION: Patients treated with systemic corticosteroids and cyclosporine/tacrolimus had a significantly increased risk of being hospitalized for COVID-19. Our study does not uncover whether the increased risk is related to the drug itself, the underlying condition for which the patient is treated or other factors.

Beyond (Mis)Representation: Visuals in COVID-19 Misinformation

This article provides one of the first analyses of visuals in misinformation concerning COVID-19. A mixed-methods analysis of ninety-six examples of visuals in misinformation rated false or misleading by independent professional fact-checkers from the first three months of 2020 identifies and examines six frames and three distinct functions of visuals in pieces of misinformation: how visuals illustrate and selectively emphasize arguments and claims, purport to present evidence for claims, and impersonate supposedly authoritative sources for claims. Notably, visuals in more than half of the pieces of misinformation analyzed explicitly serve as evidence for false claims, most of which are mislabelled rather than manipulated. While this analysis uncovered a small number of manipulated visuals, all were produced using simple tools;there were no examples of ?deepfakes? or other artificial intelligence-based techniques. In recognizing the diverse functions of visuals in misinformation and drawing on recent literature on scientific visualization, this article demonstrates the value in both attending to visual content in misinformation and expanding our focus beyond a concern with only the representational aspects and functions of misinformation.